I signed up for the National Autistic Society's London to Aachen bike ride. When I signed up it was 3 days, with the longest day being the second at about 100 miles (it was noted that this event hadn't been run before so the itinerary might not be 100% accurate).
A few weeks later, I got an update on the itinerary - I was told that the organizer had done a recce (reconnaissance) of the route and the second day would now be 120 miles (last day longer too but not too bad).
Just over a week ago, I got another update on the itinerary; actually the second day will be 137 miles (still not shown on the web page though!). To put that in perspective - that's only 4km less than the longest stage of the Tour-de-France - ouch.
Therefore, of course, you should sponsor me. Also it gives me a good example of the sort of thing that happens with software projects very frequently; so here are some relevant lessons using this as an example.
How to handle estimation
Most people are rubbish at estimating - not only software developers about code, but lots of people about lots of other things too. The three most obvious reactions to that are (a) get better at estimating (b) take bad estimating into account (c) don't estimate (or at least, not quite like most people do). I have found "extreme planning" (see Planning Extreme Programming and Agile Estimating and Planning) to work very well - however it is only really relevant to an incremental project. Quite literally, YMMV!
For a one off event like the bike ride then there's not much I can do for this event (as consumer of the estimates). However, I will treat future event descriptions as being 40% inaccurate if they haven't been run before (i.e. using "yesterday's weather" in "extreme planning" style).
Admit when you have screwed up and don't know the answers
The first change to the itinerary was not entirely unexpected - I knew the route hadn't been done before - my expectations had been set that this was an estimate.
The second change was a nasty surprise. There are two lessons here. When giving an estimate do not give it a level of confidence that it doesn't merit. If the first change to the mileage had said "and we still aren't quite sure" then the second change would not have been so unexpected. The second lesson is that if you have screwed up an estimate, then be extra generous with the re-estimate. If the first changed estimate had been 130 or 140 then 137 wouldn't have seemed so bad. If the second re-estimate had turned out to be 125 I wouldn't have been so bothered about it dropping from 130 or 140.
If as a project manager you find out that something is going wrong (e.g. the first re-estimate of the itinerary) then do something to reduce the risk of that going even more wrong. In my case, I increased the amount of training I've been doing (hence I've been writing fewer blog articles because I'm knackered at the weekends!).
Some things you just can't predict - but maybe everything will work out OK anyway
Unfortunately, my bike has developed a fault with the gears which may make it financially non-viable to repair so I may have to get a new bike - but given the new increased mileage that may be worthwhile even if my current bike can be fixed.
I'm disappointed that the event doesn't appear as well prepared as the London to Paris bike ride that I did in 2007 and that I haven't raised as much money (yet) as in 2007, but you can help with that!
Copyright © 2009 Ivan Moore